Brace for the return of El Nino, but we’re better prepared this time

The World Meteorological Organisation’s declaration that El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years puts Australia in the unenviable position of being the most vulnerable nation in the developed world.

It is a clarion call by the United Nations special agency to governments around the world to mobilise preparations to limit the impacts on health, ecosystems and economies caused by the cyclical warming of Pacific Ocean waters. The Bureau of Meteorology, which has different criteria than international weather agencies, is yet to formally declare an El Nino event and may do so in coming weeks, but the canary appears to have already keeled over.

On Tuesday, the world recorded its hottest day, when the average global temperature reached 17 degrees, surpassing the August 2016 record of 16.9 degrees. Earlier this year, the World Meteorological Organisation released a report that said there was a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years would be the warmest on record, beating the record set in 2015-16 when there was an exceptionally strong El Nino. That time seven years ago was disastrous for Australia with the Great Barrier Reef experiencing the worst coral bleaching event on record, resulting in damage to more than 60 per cent of the region.

Australia has just experienced a period of high rainfall due to a La Nina event combined with two other climate drivers: a negative Indian Ocean Dipole and a positive Southern Annular Mode. It means the soil is moist and plants are flourishing. Now, we are set to enter into a drying period driven by an El Nino. Experts fear the abundant plant growth leading into a dry period is likely to result in widespread bushfires across Australia.

Not all El Nino years result in bushfires but former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner Greg Mullins warned the state has been set up for a serious fire season, as there had been above-normal fire potential for central Australia and northern NSW after years of heavy rain had enabled strong grass growth. There had been a lot of regeneration in parts of the state that had previously burnt in bushfires, elevating dangers along the South Coast. Parts of Sydney and Newcastle could also experience elevated fire risk this coming summer.

The question is: How ready is NSW to face another natural disaster onslaught? In the recent past, emergency service organisations have been found wanting in their response to bushfires and floods. Since the Black Summer bushfires of 2019, and the subsequent years of floods, a new sense of preparedness has been imposed on the authorities charged with protecting the state. One welcome outcome of the independent inquiry into the floods was the appointment of a NSW Police deputy commissioner, Peter Thurtell, to oversee and co-ordinate emergency services’ response to future natural disasters. In addition, the Albanese government last month allocated more than $70 million to NSW for disaster preparedness.

The threat posed by El Nino’s return also represents a challenge to the climate change movement. Only a decade ago, prime minister Tony Abbott was moved to anger by the UN daring to link climate change with Australian bushfires, but the world has moved on and most now agree with the movement’s legitimate concerns.

However, while conscious of the impact of El Nino, for many Australians a shadow sometimes falls between the idea and the reality: Amid a chilly winter, Sydney’s coldest May in 53 years and a 23.9 per cent jump in power bills, consumers know that climate change demands they reduce their reliance on fossil fuels but understandably prefer to be warm.

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