By Marc McGowan
A crazy round of upsets only served to muddy the waters ahead of what promises to be a thrilling final month of the AFL season as teams jockey for top-eight spots.
There are still 15 clubs in some sort of contention for finals, while the top four is far from set either after three of the teams in that bracket tasted defeat at the weekend.
We will analyse the run home for the finals contenders every week from here, with Hawthorn, North Melbourne and West Coast already out of the running.
Collingwood retained breathing space on top despite losing to Carlton.Credit: Getty Images
1. Collingwood (16-3, 64 points, 132.7%)
The Pies ran into a rampant Carlton on Friday night, but remain two games clear on top due to Port Adelaide also losing. With a month to go, they seem as good as certain to capture their first minor premiership in 12 years, but have room to improve. Coach Craig McRae has a decision to make on Mason Cox, and whether he or Dan McStay – who looked pretty good against the Blues – is the best option to serve as the relief ruckman.
RUN HOME
R21: v Hawthorn (MCG)
R22: v Geelong (MCG)
R23: v Brisbane Lions (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Essendon (MCG)
2. Port Adelaide (14-5, 56 points, 109.8%)
That’s three straight defeats for the Power, including a second in two meetings this year with the Crows, after winning their previous 13. Fortunately for them, the Lions went down, too, so they hang onto second spot for at least another week. The difference between playing their qualifying final at home or away could be huge. There is suddenly a stack on the line this Saturday night for both Port and the similarly faltering Cats.
RUN HOME
R21: v Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
R22: v GWS Giants (Adelaide Oval)
R23: v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R24: v Richmond (Adelaide Oval)
Jostling for position: Brisbane’s shock loss to the Suns could cost them a top-two spot.Credit: Getty Images
3. Brisbane Lions (13-6, 52 points, 125.2%)
A shock loss to their QClash rivals Gold Coast may end up costing them a top-two spot – on top of collapsing late against Melbourne – and a home qualifying final because the run home could be tougher than it looks. The Lions will likely need to win at least three of their remaining four games, and might need to be perfect, to leapfrog Port Adelaide. With an away match against the Magpies still to come, that does not leave them much wriggle room.
RUN HOME
R21: v Fremantle (Optus Stadium)
R22: v Adelaide (Gabba)
R23: v Collingwood (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v St Kilda (Gabba)
4. Melbourne (13-6, 52 points, 124.3%)
Ten combined goals to Harry Petty (six) and Jacob van Rooyen (four) and another enormous Max Gawn performance was great news for the Demons, but probably less so for demoted big man Brodie Grundy. The Demons rallied from 20 points down to beat Richmond – continuing of a run of matches where they have had to work hard – and the 2021 premiers could yet snare a top-two berth if they finish the season well. The Blues clash looms large.
RUN HOME
R21: v North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
R22: v Carlton (MCG)
R23: v Hawthorn (MCG)
R24: v Sydney Swans (SCG)
The Saints did enough to shake off a persistent Hawthorn.Credit: Getty Images
5. St Kilda (11-8, 44 points, 106.5%)
Another clutch final quarter secured the Saints a second-straight win to correct a mid-season slump where they lost four of five games. The problem? They have a brutal final month to come against a string of finals contenders, starting with the white-hot Blues. St Kilda are also still not playing anywhere near the type of football they were at the start of the season, when they were strangling rivals with their defence.
RUN HOME
R21: v Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
R22: v Richmond (Marvel Stadium)
R23: v Geelong (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
6. GWS (11-8, 44 points, 102.4%)
Something special might be unfolding under first-year coach Adam Kingsley. The Giants were bottom-four after round 12, but two months later have won seven matches in a row and are a sneaky, but unlikely, top-four chance. Saturday’s victory over the Bulldogs, from 35 points down in the second half, on the road in Ballarat, strengthens their finals hopes significantly, but nothing will come easy in a tricky last month.
RUN HOME
R21: v Sydney Swans (Giants Stadium)
R22: v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R23: v Essendon (Giants Stadium)
R24: v Carlton (Marvel Stadium)
Jesse Motlop kicks one for the Blues.Credit: Getty Images
7. Carlton (10-8-1, 42 points, 116.5%)
Any lingering doubt about the Blues’ legitimacy was erased in a hugely impressive triumph over Collingwood, which doubled as their sixth on the trot. They obliterated the Pies’ much-vaunted midfield, even with Sam Walsh out and Adam Cerra gone before half-time. Charlie Curnow looks largely unstoppable as well. At the same time, there is still work to do. Carlton must win at least two of their last four, with three of them against top-eight rivals.
RUN HOME
R21: v St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R22: v Melbourne (MCG)
R23: v Gold Coast (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R24: v GWS (Marvel Stadium)
8. Western Bulldogs (10-9, 40 points, 105.7%)
A simply horrible defeat for the Dogs, from almost six goals up in the third quarter against the Giants. They must win three of their last four to be certain of a finals berth – two might be enough, but many of their rivals have a draw – but only the Eagles clash looks a gimme, given how plucky the Hawks can be, especially in Launceston. Luke Beveridge’s men would not want to rely on beating the Cats in round 24 to seal the deal.
RUN HOME
R21: v Richmond (Marvel Stadium)
R22: v Hawthorn (UTAS)
R23: v West Coast (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Geelong (GMHBA Stadium)
9. Geelong (9-9-1, 38 points, 119.5%)
The Cats are in some trouble after losing to bogey team Fremantle for the third straight time, including twice at GMHBA Stadium. This is where the 0-3 start comes back to haunt the reigning premiers, and why so few teams recover after such a bad beginning. Saturday night’s showdown with Port Adelaide could determine whether Geelong make the top eight, given they have the high-flying Magpies after that. It’s been a strange season at the Cattery.
RUN HOME
R21: v Port Adelaide (GMHBA Stadium)
R22: v Collingwood (MCG)
R23: v St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R24: v Western Bulldogs (GMHBA Stadium)
10. Sydney (9-9-1, 38 points, 111.2%)
Almost blew a 37-point second-half lead before holding on by two points against a fast-finishing Essendon, in a result that keeps their finals chances alive. The Swans have four wins and a draw from their past six outings since plummeting to 15th at the end of round 14. The Dogs and Cats did Sydney a favour by losing at the weekend, but a local derby against the red-hot Giants looks very tough. Can afford to drop only one match – best case – in the last month if they want to qualify for September.
RUN HOME
R21: v GWS Giants (Giants Stadium)
R22: v Gold Coast (SCG)
R23: v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R24: v Melbourne (SCG)
11. Richmond (9-9-1, 38 points, 97.9%)
The Tigers snatched victory from the jaws of defeat against Hawthorn a week ago, but this time blew a 20-point lead to Melbourne, in a result that could have serious finals ramifications. They need to win three of their last four to play in September, and they may have to be locked away in the next three weeks, given the Power will be waiting in South Australia in round 24. Richmond could shape the top eight – win or lose – in the next fortnight.
RUN HOME
R21: v Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
R22: v St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
R23: v North Melbourne (MCG)
R24: v Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Taylor Walker destroyed Port Adelaide in the Showdown.Credit: Getty Images
12. Adelaide (9-10, 36 points, 116%)
The Crows’ finals hopes continue to flicker thanks to a second emphatic triumph over Port Adelaide this season. They will be hot favourites against the Suns and Swans at home, and would expect to pocket the four points in Perth over lowly West Coast. Assuming they are all wins, that would leave Adelaide with 12 victories – but still very likely needing to win for just the second time in nine meetings this year away from Adelaide Oval against Brisbane in round 22.
RUN HOME
R21: v Gold Coast (Adelaide Oval)
R22: v Brisbane Lions (Gabba)
R23: v Sydney Swans (Adelaide Oval)
R24: v West Coast (Optus Stadium)
13. Essendon (9-10, 36 points, 98.4%)
The Bombers fought hard at the end of their two-point home defeat to Sydney but have now lost five of their past six matches as their season goes into freefall. The Bombers were a game outside the top four before that slump, having just swept aside the Blues. They cannot afford any more slip-ups. Essendon have the league’s worst two sides in the next fortnight, but staying perfect in the final month against the in-form Giants and Magpies will be tough.
RUN HOME
R21: v West Coast (Marvel Stadium)
R22: v North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
R23: v GWS (Giants Stadium)
R24: v Collingwood (MCG)
14. Gold Coast (9-10, 36 points, 95.2%)
The Suns remain highly unlikely to reach their maiden finals series, but would be pretty chuffed to snap that nine-match losing streak against Brisbane. What that result also did was edge them closer to double-digit victories, something they have done only twice previously (2014, 2022). Like the Bombers, they will probably have to be unbeaten from here – but Gold Coast have an even tougher run home, including road trips in the next two weeks against fellow finals aspirants.
RUN HOME
R21: v Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
R22: v Sydney (SCG)
R23: v Carlton (Heritage Bank Stadium)
R24: v North Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
15. Fremantle (8-11, 32 points, 89%)
The Dockers are mathematically still in the September race after a bonkers upset over Geelong at GMHBA Stadium – but with a poor percentage, it is highly improbable they make it back to the finals. In Fremantle’s favour is they won’t leave Perth for the next three weeks, so if ever they are going to go on a run, it is now. However, the third-placed Lions, who are on the rebound and trying to climb into the top two, could effectively end their season this weekend.
RUN HOME
R21: v Brisbane Lions (Optus Stadium)
R22: v West Coast (Optus Stadium)
R23: v Port Adelaide (Optus Stadium)
R24: v Hawthorn (MCG)
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