Editorial
Trump is an American tragedy with potential to affect the world
Donald Trump has been accused of betraying the United States, a traumatic outcome for a country that not only prides itself as a bastion of democracy but invests so much national myth and hope in its presidents. Sadly, there are world implications too: his alleged crimes will rightly worry allied nations as he seemingly marches relentlessly towards the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential elections.
Should Trump recapture the leadership of what was once called the Free World, user-friendly nations undoubtedly would need to recalibrate their expectations of the US relationship.
As president, Trump specialised in a highly dangerous form of geopolitical brinkmanship filtered through his peculiar and narrow prism of self-interest that stunned allies. His return would have huge ramifications for Australia. Having just signed up to the AUKUS agreement and the attendant multibillion-dollar submarine deal with the US, the future would be uncertain as under Trump the previous bilateral relationship was often marked by confusion and erosion of trust.
This week Trump was criminally indicted after a Washington grand jury voted to prosecute him on four counts related to his efforts to remain in power after losing the 2020 election and his role in the events leading up to the January 6, 2021, storming of the US Capitol. Trump has pleaded not guilty. He is expected to argue in court that he is protected by America’s right to free speech and he genuinely believed that the 2020 election was rigged.
The matter is due to return to court on August 28 when a trial date is expected to be set. The latest charges join a plethora of current criminal cases and investigations – including illegally retaining classified national security documents and the payment of hush money to a porn star – that have been launched against the 77-year-old.
How is he still a contender? Trump in office proved dissembling, deceitful and incompetent, a president who oversaw more than one million of his fellow Americans die during the COVID-19 pandemic and did little about it other than whip up anti-Chinese fury and encourage his top health officials to study the injection of bleach into the human body as a means of fighting the virus.
Yet, he seems bulletproof. For die-hard supporters, his many failures are either disbelieved or assuaged by his ability to crystallise the resentment of people who blamed “the system” for their failures. And the Republican Party would be happy to take the win even with such a tainted candidate.
As a rich populist politician who ironically marketed himself as outside establishment politics, Trump’s popularity remained intact even as he flouted convention and tradition and American institutions started hunting him down, eventually accusing him of conspiring, in office, to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election.
Already there are voices in the US arguing there is no evidence linking Trump to the Oath Keepers or Proud Boys who stormed the Capitol and, further, his arraignment sets a dangerous precedent for candidates’ ability to contest election results in years to come.
But Trump tried to overturn the constitutional system and the rule of law and is now being held to account by that system.
The US will undergo a polarising election campaign over the next 15 months as Trump legitimately uses everything available to delay in the hope of retaking the White House which could put him in a position to drop the charges or pardon himself.
The court case may well be a chance for US democracy to rid itself of Trump’s pernicious and insidious presence and the farce that his continuing presence has imposed on US politics. History shows when demagogues depart, their malign influence fades.
Bevan Shields sends an exclusive newsletter to subscribers each week. Sign up to receive his Note from the Editor.