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Trump is no modern-day Nixon and there is no sign of ‘tranquillity’ returning to the US
By Farrah Tomazin
Washington: When then-president Gerald Ford pardoned Richard Nixon two years after the Watergate scandal erupted, he did so insisting it was in America’s best interest.
Nixon had just resigned, and the newly sworn-in Ford believed a protracted and politically charged trial could end up doing more harm than good for the country.
There are obvious similarities between Richard Nixon and Donald Trump. Credit: AP
“The tranquillity to which this nation has been restored by the events of recent weeks could be irreparably lost,” Ford wrote in his September 1974 pardon proclamation.
There are obvious parallels between Nixon and America’s twice-impeached president, Donald Trump: scandals involving incriminating tape recordings, defiance in the face of controversy, and a desire to cling to power, to name but a few.
But there are notable differences, too, not least of which involves the fact that Nixon was ultimately condemned by his own party, as many Republicans eventually urged him to leave office.
Today’s Republicans remain largely in Trump’s corner, even as he heads into an election year facing three criminal trials: the first for alleged hush money payments to silence a sex scandal; the second for allegedly mishandling classified documents; and the latest where he is accused of attempting to overthrow the results of the 2020 election. Trump denies all the charges.
People gather for Donald Trump’s arrival at the Federal Court in Washington this week.Credit: AP
Senior members of the GOP have rallied around him, less concerned about the gravity of the allegations and more focused on what they claim is a “two-tiered” justice system, by which Trump is being politically persecuted because he is Joe Biden’s rival.
And Trump’s base – many of whom still believe the 2020 election was stolen – seems almost unshakeable: indeed, in the four months since Trump’s first indictment in New York, he has gained nearly 10 percentage points in the race for the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential race, according to national polling averages.
In contrast, the support for his closest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, has fallen so far behind that he now trails Trump by more than 30 percentage points.
To some extent, none of this should be surprising. While Trump may pose a threat to democratic norms, few other politicians have ever been so successful at tapping into the grievances and alienation of millions of Americans, particularly those who fear their country is being taken through deception and lies.
Now his legal woes have become central to his campaign pitch. As he wrote on social media on Thursday (US time) before pleading not guilty to four conspiracy and obstruction charges relating to his attempts to stay in power: “I am now going to Washington DC to be arrested for having challenged a corrupt, rigged & stolen election. It is a great honour because I am being arrested for you.”
It’s a message that has resonated wherever the former president has been charged.
“If they can come after him, they can come after anyone,” Long Island resident Diane Lewis told me in Manhattan on the day Trump was charged there.
Cuban-American businessman Evelio Medina explained after the former president was arraigned in Miami: “There’s no point talking about Democrats and Republicans because the traditional party system is dead. This is a movement.”
“Democrats think they’re helping the country, but they’re hurting the country,” said Dion Cini, who stood outside the courthouse holding a flag emblazoned with the words “Trump or Death”.
“We’ve gone beyond division. We were friendlier in the Civil War.”
Dion Cini (right) takes a selfie with a fellow Trump supporter outside court.Credit: Reuters
There’s no doubt Trump’s legal woes will exacerbate tensions in the Divided States of America, but whether any of these charges stick, let alone make a difference, is the obvious question.
The latest indictment puts the 77-year-old front and centre of a months-long, multipart conspiracy to obstruct and overthrow Biden’s election victory.
Much loved by Republicans, Trump greets fans at a Florida restaurant after his second indictment, in June.Credit: AP
That conspiracy involved stoking lies about voter fraud, embracing a scheme designed to use fake electors to flip electoral college votes in seven battleground states, mounting a pressure campaign on state and federal officials to overturn the results, and exploiting the protest that led to the Capitol riots.
Trump’s lawyers say he will fight the charges by arguing that he is protected by America’s right to free speech, and that he genuinely believed that the 2020 election was rigged.
“It’s a very straightforward defence – that he had every right to advocate for a position that he believed in and that his supporters believed in,” his lawyer, John Lauro, told NPR.
Trump supporters rally before the riot at the US Capitol in Washington on January 6, 2021.Credit: AP
“What we will argue to the jury – and we’ll win – is that the president was arguing for the truth to come out in that election cycle, rather than the truth to be denied.”
Legal scholars and Trump’s own former attorney general, Bill Barr, however, are not convinced that the First Amendment defence will fly.
“As the indictment says, they are not attacking his First Amendment right,” Barr said this week. “He can say whatever he wants, he can even lie. He can even tell people that the election was stolen when he knew better. But that does not protect you from entering into a conspiracy.”
What’s more, Trump allegedly perpetuated his stolen election claims despite being repeatedly told by his own aides, national intelligence officials and White House counsel, that there was no evidence of voter fraud.
“Wilful delusion is not a defence in criminal law,” said Professor Alan Rozenshtein, a national security law expert and former Justice Department official.
“It’s always tricky to establish a defendant’s frame of mind, but I do think the special counsel is prepared, as we can see from the voluminous evidence of Trump being told over and over again that he had lost.”
Maybe none of these defences will come to pass any time soon. Trump’s main strategy, after all, is to delay his trials beyond the next election: that way, if he wins, he can pardon himself; if he doesn’t, he’ll hope someone might do so for him.
Half a century after Ford pardoned Nixon, will the tranquillity of the nation be irreparably lost by then?
Trump is embroiled in seven cases in several jurisdictions involving:
- Four counts, including three of conspiracy, relating to an effort to overturn the 2020 election which led to the January 6 Capitol riots; first hearing scheduled for August 28, 2023, Washington
- Alleged “persistent and repeated business fraud” at his Trump Organisation, October 2023 trial, New York
- Writer E Jean Carrol’s second defamation trial on January 15, 2024, New York
- A lawsuit by four investors who claim losses from an alleged pyramid scheme involving a phone company promoted by Trump on The Apprentice. The claim is now against Trump alone, as claims against his children were dropped after they gave dispositions. Trial starts on January 29, 2024, New York
- 34 counts relating to alleged hush money paid to Stormy Daniels, trial set for March 25, 2024, New York
- 40 counts relating to classified documents kept at his residence, May 20, 2024 trial, Florida
- Alleged scheme to overturn the 2020 election Georgia college vote, Georgia
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