Opinion
Why Dutton could be the Yes campaign’s biggest asset
James Massola
National affairs editorFor months, the Yes campaign for the Voice to parliament has been criticised for being slow to get out of the starting blocks, for poorly explaining why Australia needs a Voice and for being in denial about its sagging poll numbers.
And for months, Yes advocates and the federal government have claimed that once the Voice “got out of Canberra” its fortunes would revive because conflict in parliament would subside.
Peter Dutton, the man who champions No. But might his image be just what the Yes campaign needs?
But this week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Minister for Indigenous Australians Linda Burney were peppered with questions in parliament about whether, if the Voice succeeds at the referendum, it would then lead to a national treaty. Both Albanese and Burney had bad weeks.
In trying to walk a tightrope between giving concise answers about whether the Voice could indeed lead to a national treaty (and perhaps reparations) – just the latest scare from No after suggesting the Voice could advise on setting interest rates or defence policy – neither gave straight answers and both looked evasive.
Last week, this column warned that hubris was beginning to infect the No campaign. But there was no sign of that this week, as the opposition once again used parliament to drag down the Yes campaign to devastating effect.
One of the main reasons the Yes camp expects October 14 to be the referendum day – aside from avoiding the wet season up north – is that the biggest gap in the parliamentary calendar for the rest of this year is the four-week break before that date. Based on this week’s performance, Yes will need every day of that four weeks.
No’s strategy of throwing bombs and sowing doubts is working a treat. By the time the Yes camp fumbles its way towards an answer, No has already moved on to throw the next bomb. This week’s bomb – treaty – was one that the prime minister himself armed a couple of weeks ago, when he told 2GB radio host Ben Fordham that the Voice was not about a treaty.
And yet on election night in May 2022, Albanese committed to implementing “in full” the Uluru Statement from the Heart. That means Voice, followed by a Makarrata commission that would oversee truth-telling and agreement-making.
The statement mentions agreement-making (aka treaty) but does not specify between whom a treaty or treaties should be made. In reality, the process that will lead to treaties is already under way in several states, including Victoria and Queensland.
Strictly speaking, Albanese is correct – the referendum is about recognising Indigenous Australians in the nation’s founding document and creating a Voice to parliament. But the PM’s desire to narrowly define the Voice while speaking to a radio station with a conservative-leaning audience – one that may not like the idea of treaty – has created a new rod for his back.
By question time on Thursday, when Opposition Leader Peter Dutton asked Albanese again about treaty, the prime minister had a (slightly) better answer. He went on the attack, pointing out the Coalition supported a legislated Voice but not a constitutionally enshrined one – so what’s the difference? – and that treaty was advancing in Dutton’s home state of Queensland, backed by the Liberal National Party opposition.
However, once again, Albanese did not address the central thrust of the question. And Burney, ruthlessly targeted by Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, struggled to give a straightforward answer all week.
This is not a sustainable position because at the apex of the No campaign is a simple message: if you don’t know, vote no. It is a brutally effective message.
Yes needs a simple riposte. It needs a bomb-thrower or two from within the parliamentary Labor Party – perhaps rising star Senator Malarndirri McCarthy – to put the No camp back on its haunches, rather than relying on Yes campaigners such as Marcus Stewart and Dean Parkin to hit back.
And Yes could be using Dutton as one of its best assets to drag down the No push. Just 21 per cent of voters preferred him as PM in the most recent Resolve poll. Recall the way Labor plastered Scott Morrison’s face everywhere in the last election campaign to suppress the Coalition vote.
The Yes camp insists it doesn’t want to be negative. This weekend’s Garma Festival features a plethora of Yes speakers and supporters who, doubtless, will all agree with each other and feel a renewed sense of hope.
But Garma is a million miles away from the lives of most Australians. And if recent political history has taught us anything, it’s that negative campaigning works. If Yes wants to win this referendum, it’s time to remove the gloves.
Albanese and Burney can’t afford another week like this one.
James Massola is national affairs editor.